A global economic recovery is in sight ...

A global economic recovery is in sight but a faster and more effective vaccination rollout across the world is critical, while respecting necessary health and social distancing measures, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook.

With a global economic recovery in sight, a faster and more effective vaccination rollout across the world is critical, while respecting health and social distancing measures. The OECD’s Interim Economic Outlook notes that activity in many sectors has picked up and sees global GDP growth at 5.6% this year, an upward revision from December 2020.

Activity in many sectors has picked up and partially adapted to pandemic restrictions. Vaccine rollout, although uneven, is gaining momentum and government stimulus, particularly in the United States, is likely to provide a major boost to economic activity. But prospects for sustainable growth vary widely between countries and sectors. Faster and more effective vaccination deployment across the world is critical.

Prospects have improved over recent months with signs of a rebound in goods trade and industrial production becoming clear by the end of 2020. Global GDP growth is now projected to be 5.6% this year, an upward revision of more than 1 percentage point from the December OECD Economic Outlook. World output is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021 but much will depend on the race between vaccines and emerging variants of the virus.

The global vaccine rollout remains uneven, with restrictions remaining in some countries and sectors. The outlook for growth would improve (upside scenario) if the production and distribution of doses accelerates, is better co-ordinated around the world and gets ahead of virus mutations. This would allow containment measures to be relaxed more rapidly and global output to approach pre-pandemic projections for activity. But consumer spending and business confidence would be hit (downside scenario) if vaccination programmes are not fast enough to cut infection rates or if new variants become more widespread and require changes to current vaccines.

Activity in many sectors has picked up and adapted to pandemic restrictions over recent months. Vaccine deployment, although uneven, is finally gaining momentum and government fiscal stimulus – particularly in the US – is likely to provide a major boost to economic activity.

But the pandemic is widening gaps in economic performance between countries and between sectors, increasing social inequalities, particularly affecting vulnerable groups, and risking long-term damage to job prospects and living standards for many people.

The Interim Economic Outlook calls for ramping up vaccination, for swifter, more targeted fiscal stimulus to foster output and confidence, and to maintain income support for people and businesses hard hit by the pandemic while preparing the ground for a sustainable recovery.

"Speed is of the essence,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría. “There is no room for complacency. Vaccines must be deployed faster and globally. This will require better international co-operation and co-ordination than we have seen up to now. It is only by doing so that we can focus our attention on building forward better and laying the foundations for a prosperous and lasting recovery for all.”

More information ?

• Watch the live webcast of the press conference (30/03/2021)
• Download the presentation of Laurence Boone, Chief Economist OECD
• Read the latest economic outlook
• Read the report in attach
• For the full report and more information, visit the Interim Economic Outlook online. Other OECD policy responses to the pandemic are available on the COVID-19 hub.