The Institut économique Molinari publishes a short report indicating Covid could significantly reduce potential growth (early withdrawal from the labor market, lower growth in exposed sectors) while increasing collective costs (health spending, early retirement, etc.).
While a great deal of uncertainty surrounds this subject, many studies indicate that the phenomenon deserves attention as the economic and social consequences could be significant. There is a risk that this pandemic will cause a negative scissor effect on our economies and public finances.
Indeed, at the World Economic Forum held in Davos from January 16 to 20, a formidable arsenal of measures was waiting for "key political, business, artistic and intellectual leaders of society" to protect them from Covid. Contrary to the prevailing view that it is simply impossible to get into battle against Covid, the organizers of the Forum showed the opposite.
In the United States, David Cutler (Harvard University), Katie Bach (Brookings Institution), Brendan M. Price (Federal Reserve) or the Bureau of Labor Statistics show Covid creates tensions on labor markets frequently at full employment:
In the United Kingdom, data accumulate as well:
In France, the signals are weaker but they exist.
Long Covid is starting to become a social phenomenon that is increasingly difficult to ignore, whose impact on companies and the business world could be significant.
With the proliferation of scientific work, it seems increasingly likely that the pandemic will have lasting health and economic consequences.
If the costs are close to the estimates, this puts into perspective the prevention-related expenditures against Covid that would be worth implementing, particularly from the perspective of improving air quality.
THE REPORT AND THE AUTHOR
Covid and its possible long-term economic impacts has been written by Cécile Philippe, PhD. She wrote some 50 articles related to Covid in the press (Les Echos, L’Opinion, Le Point…) and co-signed a consensus paper published in Nature and an article on mass testing published inThe Lancet.
This note is available:
In English: https://www.institutmolinari.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/point-impacts-covid-fev2023_EN.pdf
and in French: https://www.institutmolinari.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/point-impacts-covid-fev2023_FR.pdf
ABOUT THE THINK TANK
The Institut économique Molinari (IEM) is a research and education organization whose mission is to promote a better understanding of economic phenomena and challenges, by making them accessible to the general public. To this end, it carries out scientific research, organizes reflection circles, edits publications, offers training and all forms of teaching in this direction.
The IEM is a non-profit organization, funded by voluntary contributions from its members, individuals, foundations or companies. Asserting its intellectual independence, it did not accept any public subsidy.
FOR INFORMATION OR INTERVIEWS, CONTACT
Cécile Philippe, President, Institut économique Molinari
+33 6 78 86 98 58
Or Nicolas Marques, Managing Director, Institut économique Molinari
firstname.lastname@example.org, +33 6 64 94 80 61
+33 6 64 94 80 61
Source : Institut Economique Molinari, february 2023